TESLA $402.90
What does this price assume?
One price, three calibrated stories — and the gap nobody prices.
Skip to the numbers ↓Four numbers, dated
This is what the story you picked is worth, not a price target.
A market price almost always assumes more than a calibrated base case; the rest of this story measures how much more.
The Carmaker
worth $16.35 per share
Just a decent car company. You believe self-driving never becomes a real subscription, the grid-battery boom fades, robotaxi stays a demo, and the robot is written off. You are paying for the cars alone.
belief 1 of 10 · 0 flags · as of Jul 7, 2026
The Disciplined Machine
worth $53.41 per share
The evidence base case for every part at once: cars steady, ~1 in 6 owners pays for self-driving (FSD), energy doubles, a US robotaxi network of ~100K cabs, and Optimus ships at committed Fremont capacity. Solid, unspectacular, all five engines merely working.
belief 5 of 10 · 0 flags · as of Jul 7, 2026
Everything Works
worth $240.67 per share
All five engines fire at once (the market's implied portfolio, minus the Dream layer of aspirational claims): unsupervised self-driving (FSD), a global robotaxi network, a grid-scale energy business, and Optimus at scale — with cars capped and cannibalized. This is the analyzable ceiling; it still lands materially below the price (the remainder is Dream premium, the part of the price only aspirational claims justify).
belief 9 of 10 · 6 flags
one part sits below the analyst range on file +5 moreflags — the automated checks a story trips, in plain English
The gap and the dreams
$402.90 − $240.67 =
$162.23 unexplained by calibrated beliefsWhat would kill these stories
KILLS the base (toward bear): second-half-2026 deliveries fade below the Q2 pace, revealing the record quarter as pull-forward / a demand air-pocket.
kills the base story · CarKILLS: two-plus years of flat ~12% paid attach and a price frozen at 99 USD — the base 'moderate expansion' story collapses back to bear.
kills the base story · Software/FSDKILLS the base (both directions): sustained >=+40% y/y growth PLUS a disclosed grid-services/Autobidder revenue line promotes toward bull; two consecutive flat quarters with GM sliding below 22% demotes toward bear.
kills the base story · EnergyThe story is free. The machine is next.
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Educational, not investment advice.